Records, Resets, And Reversals
Rates dipped. DMV prices hit new highs. Foreclosures kept climbing. The data is pulling in three directions.
I set a goal last year to get time with Hieu Bui. He’s an operator I’ve watched and learned from for a while.
Didn’t know God would put us in the same room at a mastermind last week. One call after, and I’m walking away with a stack of homework. Grateful.
Two takeaways. Find the operators running a multiple moves ahead of you. Take their homework seriously.
The data below is asking the same kind of question. Records on top, softness underneath. Your homework is in the bottom half.
What’s Moving the Market
Mortgage Rates Reverse, 30-Year Drops to 6.48%
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.48% in the week ending June 4, down five basis points from 6.53% the prior week. The 15-year fixed dropped to 5.79% from 5.87%. This breaks a two-week climb and pulls the rate back below where it sat in early May. The 30-year is now 37 basis points below the same week a year ago.
Why it matters: Rate reversals at this level shift the math fast. Pre-approvals from two weeks ago undervalue what buyers can now bid. The agents who repriced listings during the climb may be selling short of where their buyer pool now sits. Expect re-engagement from buyers who paused at 6.53%.
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS: Rates Decrease to 6.48%
Bright MLS May: Mid-Atlantic Median Hits Record $450,000
Bright MLS released its May 2026 report on June 10. The Mid-Atlantic median sold price hit $450,000, up 3.4% year-over-year and the highest level on record for the region. New contracts came in at 24,153, up 4.5% YoY. Active listings ended May at 47,340, up 10.1% YoY but still 30% below 2019 levels. Within the region, DC Metro hit a record $680,000 median (+3.0% YoY), Baltimore Metro a record $430,000 (+4.9%), and Philadelphia $405,000 (+2.5%).
Why it matters: Record-high medians and rising inventory at the same time mean the market is bifurcating, not crashing. Upper-end single-family detached is driving the price record while condos and exurbs soften underneath. Operator angle: the spread between record-priced clean inventory and slow-moving distressed product is wider than it’s been in years. That’s where wholesale margins live.
Source: Bright MLS May 2026 Market Report
CPI Hits 4.2% Annual, Shelter Cools to 3.4%
May CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest reading since April 2023. Headline inflation is being driven almost entirely by gasoline and energy tied to ongoing Middle East conflict, not broad domestic prices. Core CPI ran 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% YoY. The shelter component, which makes up more than a third of CPI weighting, rose 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY. That MoM pace is half what April posted. Markets read the report as Fed-neutral on rate moves.
Why it matters: Shelter inflation cooling matters more than the headline 4.2%. The Fed watches shelter closely, and a slowing trend supports the case for a rate cut later this year. Track the 10-year Treasury, not the headline CPI. That’s the number that moves your buyer’s mortgage payment.
Source: CNBC: CPI May 2026 Report
What’s Worth Watching
Foreclosure Filings Climb Again in May, Up 14% YoY
ATTOM’s May 2026 Foreclosure Market Report logged 40,355 properties with a foreclosure filing, down 5% month-over-month but up 14% year-over-year. Foreclosure starts rose 13% YoY to 27,304 properties. Bank repossessions climbed 6% YoY to 4,092 completed foreclosures. Activity remains well below pre-pandemic levels but the annual climb has now extended for 12 consecutive months.
Why it matters: The trickle is still a trickle, but it is consistently building. NOD lists in PG County, Baltimore City, and parts of Prince William are the leading edge in the DMV. The agents listing the pre-foreclosure inventory are not yet calling it that, which means it shows up on the MLS as a stale conventional listing. That’s the call list.
Source: ATTOM May 2026 Foreclosure Report
DC Metro Bifurcates: Single-Family Records, Condos Softening
Inside the Bright MLS DC Metro record, the gain is concentrated in single-family detached. Condo and exurban product are running flatter, with several sub-markets posting price reductions. NVAR has flagged the NoVA condo segment as the weakest forward-looking corner of the DMV with a 2.7% projected price decline in 2026. Bright MLS economist Lisa Sturtevant continues to frame 2026 as a “reset year, not a rebound year” even as the headline median sets records.
Why it matters: Two markets, one zip code. Record-priced single-family lifts the headline number while the condo and exurban tier carries the actual operator opportunity. Agents holding condo listings past 30 DOM are doing harder math than the headline suggests. Lead with those.
Source: Bright MLS 2026 Mid-Atlantic Outlook
Single-Family Housing Starts Down 9% Month-Over-Month
Single-family housing starts fell 9.0% in April from March, hitting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 930,000. Single-family permits dropped 2.6% MoM. Total housing starts ran 2.8% below March but stayed 4.6% above April 2025 thanks to multifamily. Builders cite affordability pressure, labor costs, and rate uncertainty as primary drags. NAHB confidence held at 37 in May, the 25th consecutive negative reading.
Why it matters: New-build supply continues to tighten on the single-family side. Less new construction means more buyers competing for resale inventory, which keeps your renovated comp pricing firm even as the broader market softens at the edges. The squeeze on builders is your buyer pool’s tailwind.
Source: NAHB: Single-Family Starts Fall
Your Seller Said WHAT?
Look, I get it. Some sellers have unrealistic expectations. But if you’ve got a property that’s actually distressed, not just overpriced, we might be able to move it. Condition issues? Tough timeline? Stuck in probate? Text me. I’ll tell you in 5 minutes if we can help. 443.569.7858
Jonathan’s Take
The data this week looks contradictory. Rates dropped. Prices hit records. Foreclosures climbed. Builders pulled back. Each number reads as a different market.
This is a bifurcating market.
Single-family detached is doing exceptionally well in the DMV. Record medians in DC, Baltimore, and across the Mid-Atlantic confirm that the buyer pool with cash, equity, or strong DTI is still actively bidding. The product priced right and presented clean is moving and moving up. Operators flipping single-family in good corridors are in the strongest part of the cycle.
Underneath, the other half of the market is softening. Condos. Exurbs. PG County. Prince William. Anywhere with weaker income growth or federal job exposure. NoVA price reductions are running well above 2024 levels. Foreclosure filings are quietly climbing for a 12th straight month. The pre-distressed listings are sitting on the MLS as ordinary stale listings, waiting for someone to make the wholesale call.
Two takeaways for operators. First, do not let the record medians fool you into thinking the whole market is hot. The bottom half is where your spread lives, and that half is getting more workable every month. Second, do not let the foreclosure trickle make you complacent. The list is shorter today than it will be in 90 days. The agents holding those listings deserve a call this week, before they get one from somebody else.
Track the bifurcation. Work the bottom half.
Rooting for ya,
Jonathan Smith
https://meetjonathan.io/
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